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ADW&T Online - Wintry Weather could be on its way to Ayrshire


Unsettled weather will continue during the next few days with all areas having further spells of rain. 

So Is colder weather still looking likely in the medium term?

GFS and ECM operational runs

The latest ECM and GFS computer model runs show cold weather developing as we head towards the middle of February. The chart below is from this morning's GFS06z run and is valid for Friday 10th February. At this point the boundary between cold and mild air masses is straddled across the UK, leading to a mix of rain and snow. 


Last night's ECM operational run has the boundary farther west at the same time with very cold air covering northern and eastern regions. 


The GFS and ECM operational runs both suggest cold and wintry conditions for much of the country.

Ensemble data

Does the latest GEFS ensemble model back the operational runs? As was the case when we  published my last update on Tuesday the picture is a lot more mixed. We've annotated the plot below to give an idea of the split between cold and mild outcomes.

A huge 850hPa air mass temperature spread develops during the second week of the month with values ranging from a very mild +9C to a bitterly cold -15C. It's very difficult to be confident about how things will develop with data like this. On balance colder than average conditions are probable but the operational runs may be overcooking things. It's too early to be confident about a genuine Beast from the East weather pattern, but it is a genuine possibility. 


TL;DR

The latest computer model data isn't conclusive but colder weather looks like developing as we head into the second week of the month. High pressure to the north east of the UK probably leads to continental air filtering in across the UK. What's less certain is whether the main body of cold air will make it as far west of the UK. If it does a genuine Beast from the East is on the cards and this would bring the risk of snow. Perhaps just nicely in time for Valentine's Day.



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