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Ayrshire weather - Wet start to Spring as Atlantic takes charge of our weather


Low pressure heading for the UK

Computer models are suggesting that during the next couple of weeks pressure will rise to the north of the UK and force Atlantic disturbances to take a more southerly track. 

This brings the likelihood of several spells of wet and windy weather. If you're hoping for late season snow I think you're in with a chance if you live in the north, but for southerners I fear it's wet not white.

The GEFS06z postage stamp plot below is for Friday 3rd March. The green shading to the northwest of the UK on most of the stamps indicates a weak rise in pressure. 

Consequently most stamps have areas of low pressure tracking farther south with very unsettled weather plaguing the UK. Although it doesn't look wintry in the south I'd expect a lot of snow to fall over the Scottish Highlands. The Scottish snowsports season could be about to take a turn for the better. 


GEFS pressure postage stamp

Wet! Wet! Wet!

The GEFS06z postage stamp plot below shows the precipitation forecasts for the same time. Ignore the details at this range, all you need to appreciate is that most of the individual runs show wet weather affecting parts of the UK. If the general set-up is being modelled correctly I'd expect flooding to be back on the menu in parts of the country. Fingers crossed that I'll be wrong, but it is something to keep an eye on.


GEFS rain postage stamp

TL;D

After a quiet winter the meteorological spring may well begin with very unsettled weather. In the north it could be cold enough for snow at times, and the Scottish ski resorts could hit the jackpot. (Note the word could). In the south some periods of heavy rain are probable but temperatures should remain close to the average and at times it may be quite mild. 

Strong winds could also be a problem.


(Pic - Ian White via ADN) 


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